Keywords:

Individual-based simulation, ecology, human impact, systematic change, risk analysis.

Abstract.

A complex individual-based meta-population simulation is presented which allows the exploration of systemic change within an ecosystem.  This model exhibits a variety of different states but can show the build up of multi-trophic levels of food web and dynamics of species.  The model is composed of a set of patches, each well mixed, with slow rates of migration occurring between neighbouring patches.  The impact of humans upon this is done in two different ways: firstly by the systematic “blocking” of dimensions of inter-species interaction and, secondly, by the introduction of individuals to represent humans which have a social (rather than genetic) set of affordances.  The outcomes of such experiments is analysed at a number of levels.  The results show that although some general relationships between settings and outcomes are discernible, some of the meaningful patterns are context-specific.  Some hypotheses about the conditions that maintain some ecological diversity despite the impact of human individuals are suggested.

Graphical Abstract.

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