an
investigation as to the type of behaviour that evolves in the presence
of crises
Bruce Edmonds
Centre
for Policy Modelling
Manchester
Metropolitan University
Aytoun
Building, Aytoun Street, Manchester, M1 3GH, UK.
http://www.bruce.edmonds.name
This difference is nicely illustrated by contrasting two approaches to providing feedback to firms making tractors.The story[1] is that in the Soviet Union firms making tractors were given a fixed fitness function: during a certain five-year plan they were rewarded according to the total weight of their output in tractors.In the west tractor firms were only rewarded when a customer was willing to buy a tractor, which might be due to any one of a thousand reasons.The result was that whereas the tractor firms in the west generally learnt to produce tractors that met their customer's needs (even if this was merely prestige), the Soviet firms produced immensely heavy tractors that quickly broke down. Regardless of whether this story is true, it vividly illustrates the limitations of a fixed fitness function.
It is the thesis of this paper that, in realistic circumstances, optimisation is only successful in the short-term.Where “in the short term” means in the absence of major catastrophes.The reason for this is due to the fact that optimisation (even where it is feasible to attempt) is inimical to the maintenance of variety. In other words, in the long run survival rather than optimisation dominates and in an unpredictable world swept with critical changes it is the heterogeneity of phenotype (and hence niche) that is the best way of ensuring survival. (der Boer 1999) hypothesises that it is the variety of habitat that is the main factor correlated with surviving crises.This is a special case of variety in general, since crises may not be geographically local but local to a niche across locations (e.g. a virus spread due to a particular behavioural trait).
A classic illustration of the efficacy of variety over optimisation is the pervasiveness of sexual reproduction (e.g. Jaenike 1978, Getz 2001).Sexual reproduction does not result in near clones of a successful organism but is a mechanism for propagating genes whilst creating and preserving the maximum variety of combinations of genes.Only for the simplest organisms, those exploiting immediate surroundings (as in plant propagation) or the most stable of environments (as with certain subterranean organisms) is sex not present.
In this paper I exhibit a model of simple creatures that move, eat, reproduce and die.They do all these things in an environment which has a (parameterised) tendency to avalanches, namely a sand-pile.The sand-pile model follows (Bak 1997). Grains of sand and food are randomly added to the pile causing unpredictable avalanches of different sizes.The avalanches can kill creatures in their path (by burying them until they starve or are dissipated) but also may uncover new food and living buried creatures.The question of interest here is the extent to which the frequency of catastrophes influence the behaviour that is evolved by the creatures.The hypothesis is that if there during long periods of stability (absence of big avalanches) optimising strategies might do all right, but in the long-term (or equivalently during frequent and severe avalanches) the best strategies are not optimising ones but ones which promote variety.
Energy in the form of food particles are being constantly added to the system: 70% of 200 particles per time period each with a food value of 15, making a total of 2100 units per unit of time (of course some of this is either dissipated or buried before it can be eaten). New creatures have 20 units of energy (which are obtained at the cost of the parent(s) except the initial population). When a creature eats its energy level is increased by 15.Each time period the creatures energy level is decreased by 0.2. Trying to eat, move, mate and propagate costs it: 0.1, 0.5, 0.5 and 1 units of energy respectively. If a creature’s energy reaches zero it dies and becomes an inert particle.Thus in terms of total energy mating and propagating costs the same as in mating the costs are shared by the parents.If creatures happen to be good at eating and moving (so they are not buried for too long) and they do not mate or propagate they can survive indefinitely.
If the column of particles becomes taller than a certain critical level the particles topple over into adjacent cells.If these toppling particles fall upon a creature they can bury and hence trap it (in which case it might starve and die).
When columns topple some of it is dissipated but the rest randomly falls into adjacent cells. These might extend these columns beyond the critical level causing them to topple in subsequent time periods.These sequences of topplings form avalanches.It is known that the size of these avalanches form a power law distribution, that is all sizes of avalanches occur, but the larger the avalanche the more rarely it occurs.However the occurrence and size of avalanches are essentially unpredictable.To stop the particles piling every higher, a certain proportion of the particles are dissipated when the columns topple.The rate at which particles are dropped into the system, the critical toppling level and the dissipation rate determine the distribution of avalanches.The dynamics of sand piles and other systems with similar properties are extensively discussed in (Bak 1997). By changing the dissipation rate and the rate of new particles we can make the system more or less catastrophe ridden.
The creatures’ behaviour is determined by a series of six programs, one for each of the potential actions: eating, mating, propagating, moving forward, turning right and turning left (turning right and left simultaneously is equivalent to turning around to face in the opposite direction). The form of these programs is a strongly typed-tree which, when interpreted, is a function that outputs a Boolean, following (Montana 1995). These trees are interpreted each time for each creature and each kind of action.If the result is “true” the creature attempts to perform that action. These attempted actions are only brought about if they are possible, e.g. one can only actually eat if the creature tries to eat and there is food immediately below, one can only mate if the creature tries to mate, it has enough energy and there is another creature immediately below it who also tries to mate and has enough energy.
The leaves of these trees are either constants or inputs whose value, when interpreted, depends upon the state of the creature and its immediate environment.These inputs represent what the creature can perceive. The creatures can perceive: the relative height of adjacent cells (higher, lower or level) in the different directions (relative to the way it is facing), as well as the presence of food, other creatures and recently fallen objects there.They perceive the time since they had last: eaten, mated, propagated or moved.They also perceive their own energy level.
The operators of these programs include Boolean operators (AND, OR, NOT and IF THEN ELSE) , arithmetic operators (+, *, -, /), comparisons (>, <, =), directional operators (to the right of, to the left of, behind, ahead), and a simple memory operator (LAST).Any combination of leaves and operators that preserve the appropriate types in the trees can occur.This allows for a huge variety of possible behavioural strategies to be encoded in the creature’s genome. Some examples of trees are shown in figure 1 and the full syntax of these trees in listed in the appendix.
Figure 1.Some examples of program trees and someinterpretations of them in terms of behaviour
A warning: although I have used comprehensible mnemonics to specify the structure of their behavioural genes this is not accessible to the creatures. I only did this to make it easier for me, the modeller, to understand the behaviours they have. Thus the creatures have no explicit knowledge about their environment apart from the fact of their perceptions and what happens to them.They do not have any hard-wired indicators (such as pleasure, pain hunger, lust etc.) to aid their choice of action. In particular they do not know a priori that, for example, that if there is food here then it is a good idea to eat or even that it is a good idea (from the point of view of survival) to eat at all.The creatures merely “blindly” execute their program genes and attempt to perform the action these entail, regardless of whether they are sensible or even possible.Thus a creature might continually try to propagate when it has insufficient energy to do so and so greatly hasten its own demise since even attempting to propagate expends a lot of energy- of course, over the course of the simulation one would expect that such creatures would quickly die out leaving only those that happen to be more suited to their environment.
Channon and Damper (Channon and Damper 2000) argue that using a GP like structure will prevent evolution occurring since this makes the fitness landscape too rugged to allow for continual and open-ended evolution.He uses a variable length GA which is mapped into neural nets using a system of gene-expression.However this is dependent upon the language of the trees (Albuquerque et al. 2000).In this case the use of strongly typed trees means that crosses are much more likely to be correlated in terms of fitness that with an untyped GP.Further the nodes and terminals were chosen so that crosses (that occur mostly near the leaves, Angeline 1996) will be related to what was there before.Thus, although I find the arguments of Channon and Damper are in general persuasive, the extent of the ruggedness in this case is unclear.It is also not entirely certain that the current model allows for truly open-ended evolution, but does seem to be the case.A further study involving many long simulations would be necessary to determine this for sure.As it was the simulations took about a day for 2000 creatures over 800 time cycles with an average tree depth of 4, so considerably greater computational resources would be required for this.
If the creatures have enough energy they may propagate.In this case the genome of the offspring is a copy of the parent. However there is a small probability of a mutation (0.01 per tree copy). The mutation is realised by crossing the original tree with a new randomly generated tree. If they have a high enough energy level and meet another creature also with a enough energy they may mate with that creature.Thus mating is inherently much more difficult to achieve that propagating, even though in total for the system as a whole the energy requirements are the same.
At the beginning the initial population is initialised with random programs.When the creatures clone themselves their offspring are identical to themselves, when the creatures mate a type-sensitive tree-crossover occurs as in strongly typed Genetic Programming (Montana 1995) pairwise for each of the six trees and the offspring is created as a result.
The model was implemented in SDML (Moss et al. 1996). More details about the model, including how to obtain the code, are in the Appendix of this paper.
·Energy of a food particle: 15
·Energy a creature is born with: 20
·Initial depth of genome trees: 4
·Size of grid: 40 by 40
·Proportion of new particles that were food: 70%
·Critical height of a column: 10
·Number of new grains each time period: 200
·Mutation rate: 1%
·Energy required just to exist: 0.2
·Energy required to attempt to eat: 0.1
·Energy required to attempt to move: 0.2
·Energy required to attempt to mate: 0.5 (each parent)
·Energy required to attempt to propagate: 1
In a typical run, the population soon crashes to about 30% of theinitial population as the totally dysfunctional creatures (e.g. those that don’t ever try to eat) die.This leaves about 200 who happen to have a rudimentary ability to survive.Out of these some will simply be good at surviving.Others will happen to propagate or even (if they are very lucky) mate, others. This last category of creature forms the basis for the evolutionary process, which (typically) allows the population level to climb to a level of 800-1200 where it levels off.
The higher the dissipation rate, the fewer the avalanches and the easier it is to survive.Figure 2 shows the number of living creatures for each run and figure 3 shows the number of falling items (using the same key as figure 2).In each case the population evolves to survive better over time, but the creatures in the most avalanche prone have a more difficult task to evolve solutions to.
Figure 2. The population over time in the three runs.
Figure 3. The number of falling items (inert grains, food and creatures) over time in the three runs.
In each case there was vastly more propagation occurring than mating.This is not surprising as for mating to occur two creatures have to be on top of each other, both with enough energy and both wishing to mate, while for propagation only one creature with enough energy and wishing to propagate is required.Contrary to expectations the more stable runs had a higher number of matings that the unstable ones (figure 4).However this is due to the much greater difficulty of mating in the unstable runs, since many of the creatures will be buried for periods of time before another avalanche brings them back to the top.
Figure 4. Number of matings in three runs (key as before)
In each of the three runs considerable variety was found to exist, even by time period 800.This may be an indication that the runs need to be a lot longer, it may also simply be a reflection of its environment.Table 1 shows the distribution of occurrences of frequencies of genes at the end of each run.Thus in the run with dissipation rate 0.4 there were an average of 1121 unique genes over the six gene types (one for each action), an average of 157.17 of genes that occurred twice in the population, 62.17 that occurred thrice etc.
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Table 1. the occurrence of different frequencies of genes at the end of the runs, averaged over the six genes.
Some evidence for the effect of the level of catastrophe was found in the kurtosis of the (average) distribution of genes at the ends of the three runs (table 2).The Kurtosis is the fourth moment (mean is the first, variance is the second, and skewness is the third).The index of kurtosis is the fourth root of the kurtosis (just as the standard deviation is the second root of the variance). This is a measure of how the “fat-tailed” the distribution is.A number greater than one indicates that the distribution has higher tails and a sharper “point” than the normal distribution.All three distributions had very high levels of kurtosis, but the lower the dissipation rate the higher the distribution, indicating that in the crisis prone run there was more of both a few frequentgenes and a lot of unique genes, while the most “stable” run had more genes with an intermediate frequency (it was closer to a normal distribution).
Rate |
Kurtosis
index of gene distribution
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This limits when an evolutionary explanation of a particular behaviour is feasible.For in situations prone to crises it may not be the detail of the behaviour that is significant but the range of behaviours of which the particular example may be but one.
This also provides a cautionary tale for those who would design or develop animats or robots.Endowing such a creation with a particular well-honed behaviour (whether obtained by design, from observing animals or from the results of simulations), may not provide it with the best chance of survival/success (unless the environment it is to inhabit is very limited and/or stable).Rather, it may sometimes be better to provide mechanisms to produce and maintain a great variety of behaviours, the better to ensure that some survive/succeed during an unpredictable crisis.Sexual reproduction is one such mechanism, mechanisms that produce essentially random elements to behaviours is another.
Another aspect of the thesis of this paper is that it is impossible for an organism (or species) to learn from its own extinction. Successful organisms often develop “proxies” for extinction that allow it to adapt to avoid situations where extinction is likely. Thus we have pleasure, pain, lust, hunger etc. in animals and profit, cash-flow, dividends, etc. in firms.These can indicate danger (or opportunity) ahead of (or in the absence of) a critically dangerous event.However these are only proxies for (or models of) the real thing - survival.In general only a complex collection of these indicators make up a sufficiently good model of survival to be useful in real-life situations. If an organism concentrates over-much on optimising a single indicator (for example just eliminating pain in animals or only going after short-term profit in firms) they are less likely to survive in the long term.Thus over an evolutionary process one might expect that: firstly, such indicators would evolve and secondly, that over time they would increase in number and sophistication.
Appendix – Model Specification
·The energy level of each creature varies according to whether it has eaten, mated or propagated.
·The
trees which determine the creatures' behaviour when interpreted in each
circumstance are crossed in the manner of Genetic Programming when the
creatures mate and produce a child.
·Initial number of creatures (4000)
·The energy creatures are created with (20)
·The amount of energy gained by a creature when eating a food particle (15)
·The number of particles that fall into the environment each time period (200)
·The proportion of new particles that are food (rather than inert) (70%)
·The depth of the initial random program trees of the creatures (4)
·The critical depth for a pile of objects at a location above which the pile topples (10)
·The amount of energy lost in a time period if the creature does not eat (0.2)
·The energy cost of trying to move (0.2)
·The energy cost of trying to mate (0.5)
·The energy cost of trying to propagate (1)
·The energy cost of trying to eat (0.1)
·The energy reserves necessary for a creature to propagate itself (>energy creatures are created with)
·The amount of energy lost in the process of propagation (= 1 x energy creatures are created with)
·The energy reserves necessary for creatures to mate (> 1 x energy creatures are created with for each mate)
·The amount of energy lost in the process of mating (= 0.5 x energy creatures are created with for each mate)
·The mutation rate (1%)
·direction
·action
·property
·Boolean: TRUE, FALSE, randomBoolean;
·numeric: ZERO, ONE, TWO, FIVE, TEN, TWENTY, FIFTY, myEnergy;
·direction: ahead, behind, left, right, here, randomDirection.
·direction: rotateRight [direction], rotateLeft [direction], reflected [direction], IFDirection [Boolean direction direction], LASTDirection [direction].
2.The position of creatures and their energy levels are updated according to the actions last time period;
3.The creatures behavioural models are interpreted in their current situations which result in the atempted actions of the creatures;
4.The actual actions of the creatures are worked out where intended actions are possible.
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