5.3 Example 2 - Communication, Learning and the El Farol Bar Problem

5.3.2 Extending the El Farol Model

I extend Arthur's model by adding learning using an adapted GP process and by introducing communication with other agents before making their decision whether to go to the El Farol Bar. Each of the agents' models of the environment is composed of a pair of expressions: one to determine the action (whether to go or not) and a second one to determine their communication with other agents. The action can be dependent upon both the content and the source of communications received from other agents. Although the beliefs and goals of other named agents are not explicitly represented by the agent, they emerge implicitly in the effects of the their' models.

The two parts of each model are expressions from a two-typed language specified (by the programmer) at the start*1. A simple but real example is shown in figure 12 below. Translated this example means: that it will say that it will go to the El Farol Bar if the trend predicted over observed number going over the last two weeks is greater than 5/3 (the total population was 5 in this example); but it will only actually go if it said it would go or if barGoer-3 said it will go.

Figure 12: A simple example model

The agent gains utility by going to the El Farol Bar when it is not too crowded. Thus each agent is competitively developing its models of what the other agents are going to do.

Modelling Bounded Rationality In Agent-Based Simulations using the Evolution of Mental Models - 17 MAR 98

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